Every $1 spent on activities that spur economic growth and political stability can avert spending of up to $103 on a future conflict.

Stopping conflicts before they start isn’t just humane. It’s smart economics. 

In 2023, conflicts cost the global economy $19.1 trillion – roughly equivalent to the economy of the European Union and more than the combined economies of Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South Asia. On an individual level, that would be an estimated cost of $2,380 for every person on the planet. This accounts for military and security expenditures, economic losses, and lives lost due to violence. Factoring in the impacts on human health and wellbeing as well as the full effects on future economic growth and stability, the real costs are far greater. 

Resolving conflicts rightfully receives a lot of global attention. But conflict prevention is the smarter, more cost-effective solution, resulting in saved lives, stabilised economies, and reduced need for costly military interventions. Every $1 spent on activities that spur economic growth and political stability—such as making governments more transparent and accountable, creating jobs, and improving public services—can avert spending of up to $103 on a future conflict and its aftermath, according to new research by academics and IMF staff. 

Countries with the largest development needs face the greatest risk of conflict and account for a disproportionate number of the world’s active conflicts. They are frequently beset by high poverty levels, weak government institutions, poor social services, high debt burdens, and strained budgets. These factors make them more susceptible to political instability and conflict. It is in these countries – those with elevated conflict risk and lower state capacity – that the biggest benefits can be gained from conflict prevention policies. 

Top military leaders agree: foreign aid is a strategic investment. When governments are stable, economies grow. When people have access to quality health services and education, decent jobs, and the freedom to pursue a life of dignity and opportunity, they re-invest in the communities that support them, catalyzing further growth. That’s the power of development: It creates security without a single shot fired. 

“Development is a lot cheaper than sending soldiers.”

Robert Gates
Former US Secretary of Defense

The inverse is also true: past conflict is the greatest predictor of future conflict and economic deterioration, and countries recovering from conflict are more susceptible to future conflict. The presence of violence is equivalent to a 30% tariff on international trade. Even just the perception of violence can scare away international travelers and investors. This vicious cycle imperils peacebuilding efforts, reinforcing the need for development spending that proactively stabilises countries. 

We can’t take this for granted. Investments in official development assistance pay a sizable return in lives and money saved. They help bolster political stability and economic growth by strengthening government institutions, the rule of law, and anti-corruption efforts; fostering economic opportunities in the private sector; and assisting with better delivery of government services, such as health, education, and electricity. Plus, they build strategic partnerships across the world that strengthen national security, bolster economic ties, and protect against deadly diseases. 

Every dollar spent on development saves lives, money, and averts future crises. That’s why donor  governments should take concrete measures today to help prevent conflicts tomorrow. That includes prioritising aid budgets, unlocking hundreds of billions of dollars through multilateral development bank reforms, supporting debt relief to debt distressed countries, and supporting efforts to lower the cost of capital for lower-income countries.  

Military leaders understand that development is a key part of national security. In their own words:

“Development is a lot cheaper than sending soldiers.” – Robert Gates, Former US Secretary of Defense 

“Security without development cannot last.” – James Appathurai, NATO Spokesman

“In both Latin America and Afghanistan, when I commanded tens of thousands of US and coalition troops, [USAID] did superb work that helped create real security for the United States.” – James Stavridis, Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO

“If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition.” – James Mattis, Former US Secretary of Defense

“Support for development is a vital component of America’s national security strategy.” – James Jones, Former US National Security Advisor and retired Marine Corps General 

“Our security will be improved by sustaining foreign aid in the years ahead rather than by making further cuts.” – US General David Petraeus, Central Intelligence Agency Director, 2011-2012 

“A fully-integrated foreign policy requires a fully-resourced approach. Our troops, Foreign Service officers and development experts work side-by-side in unprecedented and ever-increasing cooperation as they execute our strategic programs.” – Michael Mullen, Former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and retired Navy Admiral 

“USAID’s efforts can do as much over the long term to prevent conflict as the deterrent effect of a carrier strike group or a marine expeditionary force.” – Lieutenant General John Allen, Former Commander of US Forces in Afghanistan

“[The challenges of fragile states] cannot be solved by military force alone. They will require strategic investments in development and diplomacy to tackle the root causes of conflict in order to succeed for the long term.” – 141 Retired Three and Four-Star US Generals and Admirals

“A resilient society featuring democracy, trust in institutions, and sustainable development lies at the heart of a resilient state.” – European Union Global Strategy

“Ongoing conflicts, poor governance and terrorism across the continent affect our own security. This is in particular the case in Mali, the wider Sahel region and Central Africa where instability, terrorist groups, weak State structures, mercenaries and widespread poverty constitute a dangerous mix and call for enhanced EU engagement.” – European Union’s Strategic Compass for Security and Defence