Profound changes are coming.
A seismic shift in where people live and work is quietly taking place, with little fanfare. It will reshape the way the world works in ways both big and small. That includes where goods get made and consumed, where fashion and music trends get defined, and who wields economic and geopolitical power.
Between now and the end of the century, the world’s population is expected to grow from 8.3 billion to 10.2 billion. That growth won’t occur evenly. Some regions, like Asia, Europe, and Latin America, will see their populations contract. Other regions will grow. That’s especially true for Africa, which is projected to see the fastest global population surge (+141%) by 2100, far outpacing other regions. As a result, Africa’s share of the global population will expand from 19% to nearly 38%.
Shifts in population will also reshape the global workforce. Today, Asia accounts for over 60% of the world’s working age population (defined as people ages 15-64). But Africa is about to experience a massive surge in new workers.
As a result, Africa’s share of the world’s workers will surge from 17% in 2026 to over 25% by 2050 and 40% by 2100. Combined, Africa and Asia will be home to over four in every five workers globally by century’s end.
That will have important implications for economies, trade routes, and migration. And those changes will be noticeable in the coming decades. By 2050, significant shifts in where workers live will be clearly visible, with the numbers of workers declining in Europe, China, and Japan, and surging across Africa and southern Asia.
Population changes will impact global consumption patterns. Advanced economies across Asia, Europe, and North America will see their share of global consumption fall to 30% by 2050 from around 60% at the start of the 21st century. That will invariably lead global firms to shift their focus, product design, and footprint to younger, faster-growing markets. India’s share of global consumption will rise to 16% by 2050, up from 9% in 2023 (adjusted for price differences). Africa’s demographic expansion could unlock more than $3 trillion in consumer spending by 2050.
Demographic shifts will force countries with declining populations to find ways to fill vacant jobs and help pay for social safety nets stretched by aging populations. One option, championed by economist Lant Pritchett, is “rotational labor mobility.” Such a system would enable the orderly exchange of temporary workers from areas with excess workers to places with labor gaps. It could add $6 trillion in additional wages to the global economy by 2050.
A change is coming. Countries would be wise to prepare for it.